Price Spike Detector for Path of Exile
Price spikes happen when an item suddenly jumps in value — usually because a streamer featured it, a patch buffed the skill, or the meta shifted. This tool detects those spikes early by comparing current prices against historical patterns from past leagues.
How It Works
- Price data is pulled from poe.ninja and compared against the same league day from previous leagues (Settlers, Necropolis, Affliction, Ancestor, Crucible).
- The spike score measures how much an item has deviated from its expected price at this point in the league. Higher scores mean bigger anomalies.
- The wizard bar at the top highlights the most actionable spikes right now — items where the spike pattern suggests a buying or selling opportunity.
- Category filters let you focus on specific item types (uniques, div cards, currency, etc.) since different categories spike for different reasons.
- Click any item row to see its full price chart — the current league line overlaid against past league data.
Example: Catching the League-Day-20 Helmet Spike
A popular build video drops featuring a specific Elder helmet enchant. Within 6 hours, listings on pathofexile.com thin out and the median price jumps from 40c to 3 divine.
Spike Tracker flags the helmet because the same slot in past leagues moved only 15% around league day 20 — this jump is 4× historical. The wizard suggests "sell into the hype" since similar streamer-driven spikes in the dataset crashed back within 48 hours.
If you already own a copy, list it now at the elevated price. If you don't own one, skip — by the time you acquire one, the spike is usually over. The tool's value is in telling you which spikes are durable (patch-driven) vs transient (hype-driven).
Tips
- Spikes caused by streamer mentions tend to be short-lived (12-48 hours). If you spot one early, sell into the hype. If you are late, the price usually corrects back down.
- Patch note spikes are more durable. When GGG buffs a skill or mechanic, the items supporting that build stay elevated for the rest of the league.
- Use the min price filter to ignore cheap items. A 1c unique spiking to 5c is noise. A 50c unique jumping to 3 divine is a real opportunity.
- The league day indicator matters. Early league spikes are common and mostly just the market finding equilibrium. Mid-league spikes (day 20+) are more meaningful.
- Cross-reference spikes with the recommendations section. The smart banner highlights items where historical patterns suggest the spike has room to grow.
Common Mistakes
- Buying into every flagged spike. The tool flags anomalies — not all anomalies are profitable. Hype spikes often crash within a day; patch-driven spikes are more durable. Read the pattern context before acting.
- Ignoring listing depth. A spike on a thinly-listed item means one seller can move the "price" single-handedly. Cross-check with listing count — 2 listings is not a market signal.
- Selling a spiking item into chaos orbs. In a high-div economy, converting to chaos locks in a loss as divines appreciate. Keep spike profits in divine orbs or convert directly into the next target item.
- Chasing a spike that has already peaked. The historical comparison shows what leagues with similar patterns did — if the spike is already 3 days old and past leagues crashed by day 4, entering now is a losing trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How quickly are spikes detected?
- Price data refreshes roughly every 45 minutes from poe.ninja. A spike that happened in the last hour will show up on the next data refresh. For truly real-time detection you would need to watch trade listings directly.
- What counts as a "spike" vs normal price movement?
- The spike score compares the current price movement against what that item typically does at the same league day in past leagues. If an item normally rises 10% on day 15 but jumped 80% this league, that gets flagged.
- Why do some items spike every league at the same time?
- Seasonal patterns are real. Boss-drop uniques spike when the majority of players reach that boss (usually week 2-3). League mechanic items spike when players figure out the optimal farming strategy. These predictable patterns are what make the historical comparison useful.
- Can I use this for Standard league?
- Standard does not have league-day patterns since there is no reset cycle, so the historical comparison is less useful. The raw price tracking still works, but spikes in Standard are rarer and usually tied to patch notes or legacy item changes.
- What is the difference between a spike and a trend?
- A spike is a short-term price deviation (hours to days). A trend is a sustained direction over weeks. Spike Tracker focuses on the former — for longer-term price trends, use the Investment Tracker tool.
- Why does the Wizard Bar recommend "hold" on a spike?
- When historical data shows the spike pattern typically sustains for weeks rather than hours, the wizard suggests holding. This usually happens for meta shifts (patch notes) rather than hype (streamer mentions).
- How far back does the historical comparison go?
- Patterns are analysed from five recent leagues: Settlers, Necropolis, Affliction, Ancestor, and Crucible. Older leagues are excluded because the economy and item pool have shifted too much to be comparable.
- Why is the spike chart showing multiple coloured lines?
- Each line is a different past league's price trajectory for that item at the same league day. The bold line is the current league. If the current line diverges significantly from the cluster, that's the spike.